Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641Keywords:
Rainfall-runoff modeling, SMAP, CCSM4, IPCCAbstract
In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have led to alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that account the impact of climate change on water availability, therefore, are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, in addition to being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation, which makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this work, a flow analysis for the São Francisco river basin is carried out up to the year 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth’s Assessment Report (AR5). Projections of future flow were made for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the rain-flow model SMAP, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, it was observed that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.
Downloads
References
AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ÁGUAS – ANA. Sistema Interligado Nacional – Bacia do rio São Francisco. Brasília: Agência Nacional de Águas, 2020.
ALVES, B.; SOUZA FILHO, F.A.; SILVEIRA, C.S. Análise de Tendências e Padrões de Variação das Séries Históricas de Vazões do Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, v. 18, n. 4, p. 19-34, 2013.
BERTONI, J.C.; TUCCI, C.E.M. Precipitação. In.: Hidrologia: ciência e aplicação, Org. Carlos E.M. Tucci, 2ª ed., 2. reimpr., Porto Alegre: Ed. Universidade/UFRGS: ABRH, 2001.
BOLSON, S.H.; HAONAT, A.I. A governança da água, vulnerabilidade hídrica e os impactos das mudanças climáticas no Brasil. Veredas do Direito: Direito Ambiental e Desenvolvimento Sustentável, v. 13, n. 25, p. 223-248, 2016.
CANTELLE, T.D.; LIMA, E.C.; BORGES, L.A.C. PANORAMA DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS NO MUNDO E NO BRASIL. Revista em Agronegócio e Meio Ambiente, v. 11, n. 4, p. 1259-1281, 2018.
COMITÊ DA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO RIO SÃO FRANCISCO – CBHSF. Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco – Atualização 2016-2025. Belo Horizonte: Secretaria do Comitê, 2016.
DA SILVA, F.N.R.; ALVES, J.L.D.; CATALDI, M. Climate downscaling over South America for 1971-2000: application in SMAP rainfall-runoff model for Grande River Basin. Climate Dynamics, v. 52, p. 681-696, 2019.
FERNÁNDEZ BOU, A.S.; DE SÁ, R.V.; CATALDI, M. Flood forecasting in the upper Uruguay River basin. Natural Hazards, v. 79, n. 2, p. 1239-1256, 2015.
GUIMARÃES, S.O.; COSTA, A.A.; VASCONCELOS JÚNIOR, F.C.; SILVA, E.M.; SALES, D.C.; ARAÚJO JÚNIOR, L.M.; SOUZA, S.G. Projeções de Mudanças Climáticas sobre o Nordeste Brasileiro dos Modelos do CMIP5 e do CORDEX. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 31, n. 3, p. 337-365, 2016.
INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE). Censo Brasileiro de 2010. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2010.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Genebra, Suiça, 2013.
ISLAM, S.; TANG, Y. Simulation of different types of ENSO impacts on South Asian Monsoon in CCSM4. Climate Dynamics, v. 48, n. 3-4, p, 893-911, 2017.
KRAVTSOV, S. Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5 simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, n. 11, p. 5749-5757, 2017.
KRAVTSOV, S.; GRIMM, C.; GU, S. Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models. Climate and Atmospheric Science, v. 1, n. 34, 2018.
LOPES, J.; BRAGA, B.; CONEJO, J. SMAP – a simplified hydrological model, applied modelling in catchment hydrology. In: Singh (ed) Water Resources Publications, 1982.
MARENGO, J.A.; CUNHA, A.P.; ALVES, L.M.A seca de 2012-15 no semiárido do Nordeste do Brasil no contexto histórico. Revista Climanálise, v. 4, n. 1, 2016.
MEYER, J.D.D.; JIN, J. Bias correction of the CCSM4 for improved regional climate modeling of the North American monsoon. Climate Dynamics, v. 46, n. 9-10, p. 2961-2976, 2016.
MIRANDA, N.M.; CATALDI, M.; SILVA, F.N. R. Simulation of the Hydrological Behavior of the São Francisco River Headwaters Using the SMAP and RegCM Models. Anuário do Instituto de Geociências – UFRJ, v. 40, n. 3, p. 328-339, 2017.
OJIMA, R. As dimensões demográficas das mudanças climáticas: cenários de mudança do clima e as tendências do crescimento populacional. Rev. bras. estud. popul., v. 28, n. 2, p. 389-403, 2011.
SALES, D.C.; PEREIRA, J.M.R. Projeções de mudanças na precipitação e temperatura no nordeste brasileiro utilizando a técnica de downscaling dinâmico. Rev. bras. meteorol., v. 30, n. 4, p. 435-456, 2015.
SILVA, M.V.M.; SILVEIRA, C.S.; SILVA, G.K.; PEDROSA, W.H.V.; MARCOS JÚNIOR, A.D.; SOUZA FILHO, F.A. Projections of climate change in streamflow and affluent natural energy in the Brazilian hydroelectric sector of CORDEX models. Rbrh, v. 25, p. 1-15, 2020.
SILVEIRA, C.; FRANCISCO FILHO; MARTINS, E.; OLIVEIRA, J.; COSTA, A.; NOBREGA, M.; SOUZA, S.; SILVA, R. Climate change in the são francisco river basin. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, v. 21, n. 2, p. 416-428, 2016.
SILVEIRA, C.S.; SOUZA FILHO, F.A.; COSTA, A.A.; CABRAL, S.L. Avaliação de desempenho dos modelos do CMIP5 quanto à representação dos padrões de variação da precipitação no século XX sobre a região Nordeste do Brasil, Amazônia e bacia do Prata e análise das projeções para o cenário RCP8.5. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 28, n. 3, p. 317-330, 2013.
SOBRAL, M.C.M.; ASSIS, J.M.O.; OLIVEIRA, C.R.; SILVA, G.M.N.; MORAIS, M.; CARVALHO, R.M.C. Impacto das mudanças climáticas nos recursos hídricos no submédio da bacia hidrográfica do rio São Francisco – Brasil. REDE - Revista Eletrônica do PRODEMA, v. 12, n. 03, p. 95-106, 2018.
SOHNGEN, B.; TIAN, X. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets. Forest Policy And Economics, v. 72, n. 5, p. 18-26, 2016.
SWANSON, K.L.; SUGIHARA, G.; TSONIS, A.A. Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 106, n. 38, p. 16120-16123, 2009.
TAYLOR, K.E.; STOUFFER, R.J.; MEEHL, G.A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. American Meteorological Society, v. 93, n. 4, p. 485-498, 2012.
THIBEAULT, J.M.; SETH, A. A Framework for Evaluating Model Credibility for Warm-Season Precipitation in Northeastern North America: A Case Study of CMIP5 Simulations and Projections. Journal of Climate, v. 27, n. 2, p. 493-510, 2014.
THORNTON, P.K.; ERICKSEN, P.J.; HERRERO, M.; CHALLINOR, A.J. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review. Global Change Biology, v. 20, n. 11, p. 3313-3328, 2014.
TOZATO, H.C., MELLO-THÉRY, N.A., & DUBREUIL, V. Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas na Biodiversidade Brasileira e o Desafio em Estabelecer uma Gestão Integrada para a Adaptação e Mitigação. Revista Gestão & Políticas Públicas, v. 5, n. 2, p. 309-331, 2015.
VALÉRIO, E.; JÚNIOR, C. Avaliação dos efeitos de mudanças climáticas no regime hidrológico da bacia do rio Paraguaçu, BA / Evaluation of the effects of climate change on the hydrological response of the Paraguaçu river basin. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, v. 20, n. 4, p. 872-887, 2015.
VAN VUUREN, D.P.; EDMONDS, J.; KAINUMA, M.; RIAHI, K.; THOMSON, A.; HIBBARD, K.; HURTT, G.C.; KRAM, T.; KREY, V.; LAMARQUE, J.F. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, v. 109, n. 1-2, p. 5-31, 2011.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - Reveng
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
The author(s) authorize(s) the publication of the text in the journal;
The author(s) ensure(s) that the contribution is original and unpublished and that it is not in the process of evaluation by another journal;
The journal is not responsible for the views, ideas and concepts presented in articles, and these are the sole responsibility of the author(s);
The publishers reserve the right to make textual adjustments and adapt texts to meet with publication standards.
From submission, the author is fully conceding the paper's patrimonial rights to the publication, but retaining the owner of its moral rights (authorship and paper's identification) according to Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial.
Licensed by 